Complex change rarely unfolds in a straight line. It’s shaped by forces no single actor controls, so the work of trying to influence it can’t follow a tidy, predictable path either. Evaluation serves that work best when it reflects this reality rather than smoothing it over in the pursuit of certainty. In this widely cited brief, Jim Coe and I propose a different way to think about monitoring, evaluation, and learning. The title nods to Euclid, who told King Ptolemy there was no “royal road” to geometry. There’s no shortcut to evaluating complex change, but there is a way to do it well: by following the paths change actually takes.

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