American Evaluation Association AEA365: Tip-A-Day for Evaluators | February 2025

Evaluate Your Way into the Future with Foresight Thinking and Tools

By By Annette Gardner and Rhonda Schlangen

How can change makers plan for a volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous future? In this post, futurist and evaluation consultant Annette Gardner and I make the case for combining foresight and evaluation. Conventional evaluation tends to treat the future as a straight-line extension of the past, or to ignore it altogether. We describe how foresight tools such as horizon scanning, the futures wheel, and alternative scenarios can be embedded at any stage of an evaluation, helping funders, implementers, and communities develop more resilient strategies. The post includes starter resources for evaluators building their futures literacy.